[1]谢丽婉,陈国明,鞠少栋.信息不完全时的海底管道安全评价方法[J].油气储运,,30():508-512.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2011.07.008]
Xie Liwan,Chen Guoming,Ju Shaodong.A method for submarine pipeline safety assessment under the incomplete information condition[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,,30():508-512.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2011.07.008]
[摘要]等.信息不完全时的海底管道安全评价方法.油气储运,2011,30(7):508 - 512.
摘要:针对风险因素属性权重不确定、专家权重不确定、评价信息不完全构成的混合型海底管道不完全信息安全评价问题,提出一种基于灰色关联分析、层次分析、直觉模糊集和证据理论的安全评价方法(GAFD-S)。应用灰色系统理论确定风险因素的权重,应用层次分析法计算专家主观权重,根据直觉模糊集和信息熵原理确定专家客观权重,利用证据理论集结含有信息缺失的评价值对管道的破坏程度进行排序,确定最需维护的管段。利用该方法对某海底管道4个管段进行安全评价,通过对腐蚀破坏、第三方破坏、自然灾害、人员误操作和设计失误5个指标进行考核,确定了不同管段的受破坏程度,实例证明了GAFD-S方法对于信息不完全海底管道安全评价的实用性。
[中图分类号]TE88[文献标志码]
A [doi]A
Xie Liwan; Chen Guoming; Ju ShaodongXie Liwan:Research Centre of Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology,China University of Petroleum(East China),Dongying,Shandong,257061.
[Abstract]For the submarine pipeline hybrid safety assessment,with uncertainties of risk attribute weights,experts’weights and information,a safety assessment method is proposed (GAFD-S) based on grey correlation analysis,hierarchical analysis,fuzzy set and evidence theory. Risk factor weights and experts’subjective weights are determined by grey system theory and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)respectively. The experts’objective weights are determined by intuitionistic fuzzy sets and entropy principle. The Dempster-Shafer evidence theory combined with incomplete information assessment is used to sequence damage degree of submarine pipeline,and then find out the most necessary maintenance pipe section. 4 submarine pipeline sections have been assessed with this method(GAFD-S)and the detailed assessment indexes are corrosion risk,the third party damage,natural disasters,person’s maloperation and design defects. The successful assessment results for the foregoing submarine pipeline sections indicates that GAFD-S method is a practical method for submarine pipeline safety assessment under the incomplete information condition.
海底管道作为海洋工程油气储运的关键设备,所处环境复杂,其风险评估存在许多不确定因素,加之数据资料有限,海底管道常常是一个信息不完全的“灰色系统”。对具有灰性的海底管道作出准确的风险评估意义重大。张琳等[1]采用美国Muhlbauer W K提出的管道风险因素评分法,利用模糊层次分析法和改进层次分析法计算风险权重,相比层次分析法,模糊层次分析法确定管道风险因素的精确度较高。李登峰[2]基于模糊优选模型提出解决信息不完全确知(部分权重已知、部分权重待定)的多目标决策问题的模糊加权规划法和模糊交叉迭代优选法。李建华等[3]利用灰色关联度对长输管道系统进行定量风险分析,并对事故因素进行排序,从而有效地确定诱发事故的主要因素。迄今为止,未见信息不完全(影响因素权重不确定、专家权重不确定、评价信息不完全)条件下海底管道安全评价的综合研究报道。
基于上述,提出了一种新的评价方法。首先,利用灰色关联方法确定管道各因素属性权重,运用层次分析法计算专家主观权重;其次,定义转换函数,将不同类型属性值一致转换为直觉模糊数,结合信息熵原理利用直觉模糊数中的犹豫度确定专家客观权重;最后,应用证据理论集结含有信息缺失的评价值,构造可能度比较公式对管道受破坏程度进行排序。
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