热油管道流动安全影响因素重要性分析新方法

1. 中国石油大学(北京)油气储运工程系, 北京102249;
2. 中国石油管道公司, 河北廊坊065000;
3. 西南石油大学, 四川成都610500

1. Dept. of Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing, 102249;
2. PetroChina Pipeline Company, Langfang, Hebei, 065000;
3. Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610500

针对原油管道流动安全评价中影响因素重要性分析存在的问题,考虑影响因素的实际波动规律,提出了一种分析影响因素重要性的新方法。根据管道稳定运行时影响因素参数实际概率分布,定义了新的重要性衡量标准,实现了影响因素的重要性排序。以各影响因素对进站温度影响为例,对实际管道影响因素重要性分析和敏感性分析结果进行了对比,结果表明:影响因素重要性分析新方法能够结合管道实际运行状况和影响因素本身的实际波动规律,反映各影响因素取值不同、波动幅度不同对结果重要性的影响。该方法可以有效、全面地对热油管道流动安全影响因素的重要性进行综合分析。

There are some problems existing in the importance analysis of influencing factors in crude oil pipeline flow safety evaluation. Considering the actual fluctuation of such influencing factors, this paper proposes a new method for importance analysis. According to the actual probability distribution of influencing factors during the stable operation of pipeline, a new measurement standard of importance is defined to facilitate the prioritization of influencing factors by importance. In this paper, the results of importance analysis and sensitivity analysis on actual influencing factors for inlet temperature of a pipeline are compared. The result shows that the new method for importance analysis can combine the practical operation condition of pipeline with actual fluctuation of influencing factors, so as to reflect the impacts of different values of influencing factors and different fluctuation ranges on importance. This new method can be used to effectively and comprehensively analyze the importance of influencing factors.