中国LNG进口产业与新型电力系统的融合发展
谢旭光

中海石油气电集团有限责任公司技术研发中心

进口LNG;新型电力系统;LNG战略储备基地;天然气发电厂;融合发展

Integrated development of LNG import and new power systems in China
XIE Xuguang

Technology R&D Center, CNOOC Gas & Power Group Co. Ltd.

imported LNG, new power system, LNG strategic reserve base, natural gas power plant, integrated development

DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2024.08.003

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【目的】目前中国进口LNG产业面临储备能力低、调节市场供需冗余能力低、进口成本偏高的困境。同时，中国新型电力系统发展面临“双高”（高比例可再生能源与高比例电力电子设备）现状，导致电力供应存在间歇性、随机性、转动惯量缺乏等问题。【方法】通过分析LNG基础存储设施现状、进口LNG价格发展趋势、LNG发电优势等，阐述建立LNG战略储备的可行性与必要性。依据新型电力系统的3个不同发展阶段，探讨了可再生能源发电占比不断提高的现状下，新型电力系统所面临的潜在问题，以及进口LNG、天然气发电在新型电力系统运转中的重要作用。【结果】在新型电力系统的发展过程中，进口LNG在低渗透率阶段可作为清洁能源代替以煤炭、石油为代表的传统化石能源成为发电燃料，在中渗透率阶段可为天然气管网与新型电力系统提供调峰及其他辅助服务，在高渗透率阶段可通过提供必要的转动惯量、备用服务、黑启动辅助服务以维持新型电力系统的稳定运行。【结论】在“双碳”目标引领下，可再生能源的发电占比将不断提高，并逐渐成为主要发电能源。天然气发电能够在新型电力系统发展的各个阶段提供必要的辅助服务，是构建新型电力系统的重要一环。当前，全球天然气市场供需宽松，可低价进口LNG形成战略储备，不断推动进口LNG产业与新型电力系统融合发展。（图3，参[28]）
[Objective] China’s LNG import sector is facing challenges arising from low reserve capacities, limited capabilities in balancing market supply and demand, and elevated import costs. Concurrently, the development of new power systems in China confronts the “dual-high” bottleneck, characterized by significant proportions of renewable energy sources and power electronic equipment. Consequently, this bottleneck leads to power supply setbacks, including intermittency, randomness, and a lack of sufficient moments of inertia. [Methods] By scrutinizing the existing status of LNG storage infrastructure, the pricing trajectory of LNG import, and the benefits associated with LNG power generation, this paper articulates the viability and imperative nature of setting up LNG strategic reserves. It also illuminates the potential hurdles encountered in the progression of new power systems across three distinct stages, amidst the increasing share of power generation from renewable energy sources. The document emphasizes the crucial contributions of power generation from imported LNG and natural gas in propelling the operation of new power systems. [Results] In the initial low penetration stage of the development process of new power systems, imported LNG serves as a clean energy source for power generation, replacing conventional fossil fuels like coal and petroleum. As progress moves to the medium penetration stage, imported LNG finds utility in peak shaving and offering auxiliary services for natural gas pipeline networks and new power systems. In the advanced high penetration stage, imported LNG contributes to supporting the stable operation of new power systems through the provision of essential moments of inertia, standby services, and black start auxiliary services. [Conclusion] In alignment with the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”objectives, the proportion of power generated from renewable sources is set to rise steadily, eventually assuming a primary role in power production. Natural gas power generation, offering crucial auxiliary services across the developmental stages of new power systems, is acknowledged as a significant component in the construction of these systems. In light of the current global market scenario characterized by a subdued supply and demand for natural gas, it is recommended to establish strategic reserves by importing LNG at competitive prices to foster the integrated development of LNG import and new power systems, ensuring bright prospects for progress. (3 Figures, 28 References)
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