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[1]胡镁林,黄坤,吴晓南.基于D-S证据理论的天然气管道可靠性评价[J].油气储运,,30():490-493.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2011.07.003]
 Hu Meilin,Huang Kun,Wu Xiaonan.The gas pipeline reliability analysis based on D-S evidence theory[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,,30():490-493.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2011.07.003]

基于D-S证据理论的天然气管道可靠性评价    ( 打印/导出/复制)
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[摘要]针对现有的天然气长输管道可靠性分析方法主要依赖于专家意见,当其意见不一致或主观性较强时,将影响对管道事件概率估算准确性的问题,描述了基于D-S证据理论的信度模型的建立步骤。利用该模型对天然气管道进行了可靠性分析,将多位专家对同一评判对象不一致的判断,根据其可信度进行了处理。该模型解决了由于专家专业知识和经验的片面性以及判决的主观性造成的天然气管道可靠性分析偏差的问题,极大地提高了分析结果的可靠性。但由于D-S证据理论尚存在一些不足,因此必须建立统一的标准使得模糊语言与模糊数保持统一性和一致性,以进一步提高管道可靠性分析的准确性。

[中图分类号]TE832[文献标志码] A [doi]A
Hu MeilinHuang KunWu XiaonanHu Meilin: Institute of Petroleum Engineering of Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan,610500.
[Abstract]The current reliability analysis method of long-distance natural gas pipeline is mainly depending on experts’ opinions. The accuracy of the evaluated probability of pipeline event would be easily affected by the variance and subjectivity from experts’ opinions. In this paper,the establishment of credibility model based on D-S evidence theory is introduced. By this model,various judgments from different experts on reliability of natural gas pipeline can be treated according to the credibility. The deviation from the reliability analysis caused by the one-sidedness in knowledge and subjectivity of experts can be solved,and the accuracy of the analysis result can be improved. As some shortages still exist in the D-S evidence theory,unified standard should be constituted to achieve the consistency of fuzzy language and fuzzy number and improve the accuracy of pipeline reliability analysis.

我国大部分天然气长输管道所处地质环境复杂,特别在地形复杂的山区,管道很容易受到坍塌、冲沟和滑坡等地质灾害的损毁而失效。虽然国内外针对管道风险进行了大量研究,但基本是关于普通埋地天然气管道缺陷(裂纹、腐蚀或凹痕等)的可靠性研究[1],且可靠性分析方法偏重于专家的专业知识和经验,主观性很大,因而造成天然气管道的可靠性分析结果与实际情况存在一定偏差。
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