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[1]李超,公维龙.国家管网新增下载点项目经济输量界限研究[J].油气储运,2025,44(07):1-10.
LI Chao,GONG Weilong.A study of economic output limits for new offload points of PipeChina[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2025,44(07):1-10.
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LI Chao,GONG Weilong.A study of economic output limits for new offload points of PipeChina[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2025,44(07):1-10.
国家管网新增下载点项目经济输量界限研究
《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE]
卷:
44
期数:
2025年07期
页码:
1-10
栏目:
出版日期:
2025-07-25
- Title:
-
A study of economic output limits for new offload points of PipeChina
- Keywords:
- new offload point; economic output limit; pipeline transportation rate; investment decision-making
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 【目的】国家管网通过改建在役天然气长输管道站场（阀室）已建分输支路新增天然气资源下载点，提高天然气分输量，实现增加营业收入和提高企业效益的目标。面对下游用户开口需求激增、国家管网基本建设项目投资回报要求高的现状，有必要开展新增下载点项目经济输量界限研究。【方法】根据国家发改委“准许成本加合理收益”的管输运价率定价机制和国家管网建设项目经济评价方法的相关规定，运用技术经济学的基本原理，当总利润为零时建立新增下载点项目总投资、总成本及总收入的关系式，得到计算经济输量界限的数学模型。以中东部价区某典型下载点项目为案例，依据国家管网建设项目经济评价参数的相关规定并结合下载点项目所在价区的实际情况，对数学模型中的各项参数进行赋值，计算得到经济输量界限。【结果】通过比较经济输量界限与下载点用户申请开口输量，可在可行性研究阶段快速研判该新增下载点投资项目在经济上是否可行。当经济输量界限小于下载点用户申请开口输量时，从财务角度项目可行；反之则不可行。当项目经济评价结论为不可行时，可适当核减建设投资、合理压减经营成本、优化天然气转运路径并提出改进建议，确保投资项目获取合理收益。【结论】近年来，中国天然气消费持续高速增长，未来此恢复性增长态势仍将延续，国家管网下游用户申请下载点项目日益增多，迅速判断项目的经济可行性可进一步发挥管网公平开放的撬动作用，推动油气市场体系完成由“3+X”向“X+1+X”的历史性变革。经济输量界限模型的建立为国家管网新增下载点项目的投资决策提供了重要参考依据，对提升国家管网的管输收入和经济效益具有显著作用。
- Abstract:
-
[Objective] China Oil and Gas Pipeline Network Corporation (PipeChina) boosts its revenue and enhances corporate performance by increasing natural gas offtake volumes. To accomplish this, existing offtake branches at in-service long-distance natural gas pipeline stations (valve chambers) are reconstructed to create new natural gas offload points. Given the surging demand for pipeline access from downstream users and the high expectations for returns on investments in PipeChina’s capital construction projects, studying the economic output limits for these new offload points has become essential. [Methods] According to the pricing mechanism of “allowable cost plus reasonable income” for pipeline transportation rates established by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), along with relevant provisions for the economic evaluation approach to PipeChina’s construction projects, a relational expression was established by leveraging the basic principles of technological economics. This expression incorporates total investment, total costs, and total income related to the construction of new offload points when the total profit equals zero. This relational expression was then used to develop a mathematical model for calculating economic output limits. In the calculation case based on a typical offload point in the central and eastern pricing zone, various parameters within the mathematical model were assigned specific values, taking into account relevant provisions regarding economic evaluation parameters for PipeChina’s construction projects, as well as the actual conditions of the pricing zone where the offload point is located, and the economic output limit was ultimately yielded. [Results] Comparing the calculated economic output limits with the outputs requested by offload point users provides a quick solution for determining the economic feasibility of investment projects for new offload points during the feasibility study stage. Specifically, an economic output limit less than the output requested by the offload point user indicates that the project is financially feasible. Conversely, if the output limit exceeds the user’s request, the project is considered infeasible. If the economic evaluation concludes that the project is infeasible, measures to ensure reasonable returns for the investment may include appropriately reducing the construction investment, cutting operating costs, optimizing the natural gas transportation route, and implementing additional improvement suggestions. [Conclusion] In recent years, China’s natural gas consumption has continued to grow rapidly, and this upward trend, driven by recovery, is expected to persist. Given the increasing number of requests from downstream users for offload points to PipeChina, rapidly evaluating the economic feasibility of these projects can enhance the leverage of fairness and openness within the pipeline network. This, in turn, promotes the transformation of the oil and gas market system from “3+X” to “X+1+X.” The establishment of the economic output limit model provides an important reference for PipeChina’s investment decision-making regarding the construction of new offload points, significantly increasing the company’s revenue and enhancing its economic performance.
更新日期/Last Update:
2025-05-07