网站版权@2014 《油气储运》杂志社 陕ICP备11014090号-10
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天然气管网的持续建设与加速改革使其系统特性与潜在扰动更加复杂,针对系统应对扰动能力的研究亟需向纵深推进。天然气管网系统韧性研究基于系统全局与局部区域的复合视角,以管网系统在面对扰动的脆弱性、鲁棒性(可靠性)、恢复力为研究对象,在概念与研究上弥补了管道完整性与管网可靠性研究的局限性。基于此,系统梳理了天然气管网系统及其他领域系统韧性的研究和应用成果,明确了天然气管网系统韧性的概念与内涵,归纳并剖析了天然气管网系统韧性指标构建、模型搭建与求解方法等的研究进展及存在问题,探讨了天然气管网系统韧性优化及提升方法;择要给出国际上成熟的天然气管网系统韧性研究应用案例,提出了天然气管网系统韧性研究在工程实际中落地应用的技术基础、数据基础和理论基础,展望了未来天然气管网系统韧性研究的重点应用场景和发展方向。讨论成果对于深化天然气管网系统韧性研究,进而保障全时域、多层次、复合维度天然气管网系统供气安全具有积极参考价值。
The construction and evolution of natural gas pipeline systems (NGPS) have resulted in increased complexity in the surrounding environment and uncertainty disturbances. Therefore, further development is needed in researching supply insurance and disturbance response ability. NGPS resilience research takes a comprehensive view that combines the global and subsystem perspectives, focusing on vulnerability, robustness, and recovery. This research fills the gaps in pipeline integrity and pipeline network reliability, both in terms of conceptual scope and research methods. Drawing from research and practical experiences in system resilience within NGPS and other related fields, this study aims to clarify the concept and connotation of NGPS resilience. Additionally, it summarizes and discusses the research progress and existing issues in the evaluation and optimization of NGPS resilience. By examining international application cases in this field, the study identifies the foundation for further applying NGPS resilience. Moreover, it anticipates and discusses future application scenarios and development directions for NGPS resilience
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系统韧性的概念由灾后主观意识而生,逐渐发展为工程思想和研究方向,对应研究由定性认知向定量评价发展。天然气管网系统韧性概念涉及运营者、研究者及用户,作为安全运行的重要思想,系统韧性是管网中各类保供举措制订的基础;作为管网系统的灾变行为表征,系统韧性是相关研究中建模、优化的核心。因此,基于不同对象和视角,天然气管网系统韧性既是思想认知,又是系统属性,上述关系表征详见图1。