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[1]经建芳,李康春,邓富康,等.油气管道腐蚀的灰色线性回归组合预测模型[J].油气储运,2015,34(12):1300-1304.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.12.010]
　JING Jianfang,LI Kangchun,DENG Fukang,et al.Prediction model of oil and gas pipeline corrosion based on grey-linear regression combination[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(12):1300-1304.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.12.010]

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油气管道腐蚀的灰色线性回归组合预测模型

《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE] 卷: 34 期数: 2015年第12期页码: 1300-1304 栏目: 出版日期: 2015-12-25

Title:: Prediction model of oil and gas pipeline corrosion based on grey-linear regression combination

作者:: 经建芳; 李康春; 邓富康; 唐兴中; 黄福川; 广西大学化学化工学院, 广西南宁 530004

Author(s):: JING Jianfang; LI Kangchun; DENG Fukang; TANG Xingzhong; HUANG Fuchuan; School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi, 530004

关键词:: 油气管道; 灰色线性回归组合模型; BP 神经网络模型; 腐蚀速率

Keywords:: oil and gas pipeline; grey-linear regression combination model; BP neural network model; corrosion rate

分类号:: TE832

DOI:: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.12.010

摘要:: 油气管道腐蚀作用机理复杂,诸多因素存在模糊性与相互关联性,对管道腐蚀速率的有效预测存在一定困难。运用具有处理线性和非线性因素能力的灰色线性回归组合模型对油气管道腐蚀进行建模,并引入BP人工神经网络模型对组合模型的残差进行修正,以进一步提高预测精度。将所建模型应用于某油气管道腐蚀速率的预测中,结果表明:所建灰色线性回归组合模型在对油气管道进行腐蚀预测时,既充分考虑到了原始数据的线性因素,又考虑了其非线性因素,预测效果较好,同时适用于解决其他复杂腐蚀体系的预测问题。

Abstract:: The mechanism of oil and gas pipeline corrosion is complicated, and many factors are ambiguous and interconnected, bringing difficulty to effective prediction of pipeline corrosion rate. In this paper, the grey-linear regression combination model which is capable of dealing with linear and nonlinear factors is put forward for modeling of oil and gas pipeline corrosion. Besides, the BP artificial neural network model is used to correct the residual error of the combination model, in order to further improve the accuracy of prediction. The established model is applied to predict the corrosion rate of some oil and gas pipeline. The results show that in the prediction of oil and gas pipeline corrosion, the grey-linear regression combination model takes both linear factors and nonlinear factors of original data, which is well-performed and can also be applied to predict other complex corrosion systems.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2014-11-23;改回日期:2015-11-13。
基金项目:南宁市科学研究与技术开发项目"超临界二氧化硫罐装及在亚硫酸法(制糖)清净工艺中的应用",20131078。
作者简介:经建芳,在读硕士生,1990年生,2013年毕业于广西大学过程装备与控制工程专业,现主要从事油气储运与腐蚀防护工程相关技术的研究工作。Tel:15296576453,Email:15296576453@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01