版权所有@2014 《油气储运》杂志社 冀ICP备号:0000000
地址:河北省廊坊市金光道51号(065000);电话:0316-2177193 / 0316-2176753; 传真:0316-2177392; 网址:yqcy.paperonce.org
技术支持:西安三才科技实业有限公司 029-89381847;029-88222991
天然气管道可靠性的计算方法
Computation of gas pipeline reliability
gas pipeline
; reliability analysis; limit state equation; Monte-Carol simulation; software framework基于可靠性的设计和评价方法(RBDA)是天然气管道设计技术的发展方向,国内外学术界针对该方法的应用展开广泛研究。针对天然气管道基于可靠性设计与评价方法所涉及的理论内容,研究了管道可靠性的分析过程,给出了极限状态方程蒙特卡罗仿真的通用算法,建立了管道可靠度计算软件框架,并以 CSA Z662 附录 O 中提供的无缺陷管道屈服和破裂极限状态函数为例对某输气管道进行可靠度计算和参数的敏感性分析。最后,根据分析结果,对管道的设计和管理提出可行性建议。提出的计算方法将方程与仿真计算分离,适合将更多的方程列入计算框架中,可以对管道的可靠性进行全面分析。
The reliability-based design and assessment (RBDA) method is the prospect of natural gas pipeline design.It is studied intensively by domestic and overseas academic communities.According to the theory involved in RBDA, analysis procedure of pipeline reliability is investigated, universal algorithm of limit state equation of Monte-Carol simulation is provided, and the calculation software framework for pipeline reliability is established.Taking the yield and fracture limit state function of zero defect pipe provided in Appendix O of CSA Z662 as an example, calculation of reliability and sensitivity analysis of parameters of an actual gas pipeline are implemented.Finally, based on the analysis results, feasible suggestions for the pipeline design and management are proposed.The computational method proposed separates the equation and simulation calculation, which is suitable to list more equations in the computing framework, so that a comprehensive analysis can be made for pipeline reliability.
[1]余志峰,张文伟,张志宏,等.我国天然气输送管道发展方向及相关技术问题[J].油气储运, 2012, 31 (5): 321-325.
YU Z F,ZHANG W W,ZHANG Z H,et al.Development trend of China's gas pipeline and relevant technical problems[J].Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation, 2012, 31 (5): 321-325.
[2]王晓香,李延丰.高强度管线钢管开发在中国的新进展[J].钢管, 2011, 40 (1): 12-18.
WANG X X,LI Y F. Recent progress of domestic R&D Hi-strength steel linepipe technology[J].Steel Pipe, 2011, 40 (1): 12-18.
[3]帅健.油气管道可靠性的极限状态设计方法[J].石油规划设计,2002, 13 (1): 18-21.
SHUAI J.The reliability-based limit-state design method[J].Petroleum Planning & Engineering,2002, 13 (1): 18-21.
[4]《飞机设计手册》总编委会. 飞机设计手册第 20 册可靠性、维修性设计[M].北京:航空工业出版社, 1999.
《Airplane design manual》Chief ditorial committee. Airplane design manualVolume 20Reliability and maintainabilitydesign[M]. Beijing:Aviation Industry Press, 1999.
[5]苏德清,廖炯生,何国伟,等.GJB 813―1990 可靠性模型的建立和可靠性预计[S].北京:国防科学技术工业委员会, 1990.
SU D Q,LIAO J S,HE G W,et al.GJB 813―1990 Construction of reliability model and reliability prediction[S]. Beijing:COSTIND, 1990.
[6]中国国家标准化管理委员会. GB/T 7826-1987 系统可靠性分析技术失效模式和效应分析(FMEA)程序[S]. 北京:国家标准局, 1987.
Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China.GB/T 7826-1987 System reliability analysis technology andFMEA procedure[S].Beijing:National Bureau of Standards, 1987.
[7]International Organization for Standardization. ISO16708-2006 Petroleum and natural gas industries pipeline transportation systems-reliability based limit state methods[S]. Switzerland: ISO,2006.
[9]帅健.腐蚀管线的剩余寿命预测[J].石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2003, 27 (4): 91-93.
SHUAI J.Prediction method for remaining life of corroded pipelines[J].Journal of the University of Petroleum, China(Science & technology edition), 2003, 27 (4): 91-93.
[10]方华灿,赵学年,陈国明.海底管线腐蚀缺陷的安全可靠性评估[J].石油矿场机械, 2000, 30 (6): 1-4.
FANG H C,ZHAO X N,CHEN G M.Reliability evaluation of corrosion defect of the subsea pipeline[J].Oil Field Equipment, 2000, 30 (6): 1-4.
[11]ZHOU W,HUANG G(Terry),ZHANG S. Model error assess-ment of burst capacity models for corroded pipes[C].IPC2012-90335,2012.
[15]吴迪,张志霞,张艳.基于蒙特卡洛法的钢管腐蚀结构可靠性研究[J].石油工业技术监督, 2012 (6): 31-33.
WU D,ZHANG Z X,ZHANG Y.Research on the reliability of pipeline corrosion structure based onMonte Carlo method[J].Technology Supervision In Petroleum Industry, 2012 (6): 31-33.
[16]冯秋芬,段志祥.Monte Carlo 法在含体积缺陷压力管道可靠性分析中的应用[J].湘南学院学报, 2006, 27 (5): 35-40.
FENG Q F,DUAN Z X.Application of Monte Carlo simulation on reliability estimationof pipe with local thinned area[J].Journal of Xiangnan University, 2006, 27 (5): 35-40.
[17]DAVID D,OSCAR F. Effect of spatial correlation on the failure probability of pipelines under corrosion[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2005, 82(2):123-128
[8]Canadian Standards Association. CSA Z662-2007 Oil and gas pipeline system[S]. Mississauga:CSA,2007.
[12]PANDEY M D. Probabilistic models for condition assessment of oil and gas pipelines[J].NDT&E International,1998,3(15): 349-358.
[13]MADSEN H O,KRENK S,LIND N C. Method of structural safety[M]. Englewood:Prentice-Hall Inc,1986.
[14]AVRAMIDIS A N,WILSON J R. Integrated variance reduction strategies for simulation[J]. Operations Research, 1996,44(2):327-346.
[1]高建,何仁洋,王德国.基于可靠性分析的大跨度跨越管桥寿命预测[J].油气储运,2010,29(5):350.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.05.010]
Gao Jian,He Renyang,Wang Deguo.Service Life Prediction for Longspan Overhead Crossing Pipe Bridge Based on ReliabilityAnalysis[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2010,29(7):350.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.05.010]
[2]刘四运,贾伯早.基于双Duffing振子的天然气管道泄漏检测系统[J].油气储运,2015,34(7):784.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.07.022]
LIU Siyun,JIA Bozao.Dual-Duffing-oscillator-based leakage detection system for natural gas pipeline[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(7):784.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.07.022]
[3]杨金生,赵宣,贾世民.天然气管道轮式超声波壁厚测量系统的研制[J].油气储运,2015,34(8):859.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.08.012]
YANG Jinsheng,ZHAO Xuan,JIA Shimin.Wheeled ultrasonic wall thickness measurement system develop for natural gas pipeline[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(7):859.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.08.012]
[4]尤秋菊 樊建春 朱伟 白永强. 天然气管网系统风险评估[J].油气储运,2013,32(8):834.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.08.008]
You Qiuju,Fan Jianchun,Zhu Wei,et al.Risk assessment of natural gas pipeline networks[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2013,32(7):834.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.08.008]
[5]李志学,魏莎莎.基于复合作业量的天然气管输定价模型试验研究——以西气东输二线为例[J].油气储运,2015,34(9):955.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.09.008]
LI Zhixue,WEI Shasha.Experiment of pricing model for pipeline transmission of natural gas based on composite throughput-A case study on the 2nd West-to-East Gas Pipeline[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(7):955.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2015.09.008]
[6]程宜强 李强林 蔡海生 徐志斌 范文斌.济淄天然气管道清管收球速度的控制[J].油气储运,2014,33(1):108.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.01.023]
CHENG Yiqiang,LI Qianglin,CAI Haisheng,et al.Control of receiving velocity during pigging for Ji-Zi Natural Gas Pipeline[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(7):108.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.01.023]
[7]宋静,马晓强,郭东升.天然气管道爆裂事故原因及防范措施[J].油气储运,2014,33(4):385.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.04.009]
SONG Jing,MA Xiaoqiang,GUO Dongsheng.Causes and preventive measures against explosion accident of gas pipeline[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(7):385.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.04.009]
[8]杨小龙.天然气长输管道并行跨接方案比选[J].油气储运,2016,35(预出版):1.
YANG Xiaolong.Comparison of the crossover schemes for the parallel long-distance natural gas pipeline[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(7):1.
[9]陈亮 彭忍社 刘英杰 李瑜.气液执行机构电子爆管保护的原理及应用[J].油气储运,2016,35(预出版):1.
CHEN Liang,PENG Renshe,LIU Yingjie,et al.Principle and application of electronic line burst protection of pneumatic-hydraulic actuator[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(7):1.
[10]刘震,姬忠礼,吴小林,等.输气管道内颗粒物检测及分离器性能评价[J].油气储运,2016,35(1):47.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2016.01.009]
LIU Zhen,JI Zhongli,WU Xiaolin,et al.Detection on particulate matters in gas pipeline and assessment on separator performance[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(7):47.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2016.01.009]
[11]李柏松 张丽稳 杨喜良 董学刚 黄恩涛 李晓明 魏晓云.天然气管道燃驱压缩机组可靠性分析[J].油气储运,2016,35(预出版):1.
LI Baisong,ZHANG Liwen,YANG Xiliang,et al.Reliability analysis on gas turbine driven compressor sets of gas pipelines[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(7):1.
[12]李柏松,张丽稳,杨喜良,等.天然气管道燃驱压缩机组的可靠性[J].油气储运,2016,35(9):920.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2016.09.002]
LI Baisong,ZHANG Liwen,YANG Xiliang,et al.Reliability of gas turbine driven compressor sets for gas pipelines[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(7):920.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2016.09.002]
收稿日期:2013-8-23;改回日期:2014-4-20。
基金项目:中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助项目“油气管网系统的状态空间建模与分析”,YJRC-2013-11;河北省博士后科研项目择优资助项目“基于状态空间模型的天然气管网控制性能研究”,项目编号20。
作者简介:温凯,讲师,1983 年生,2012年博士毕业于北京大学力学系统与控制专业,现主要从事油气管道可靠性设计的研究工作。Tel: 18531610986, Email: kewin1983@126.com