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[1]谢丽婉,陈国明,鞠少栋.信息不完全时的海底管道安全评价方法[J].油气储运,2011,30(07):508-512.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2011.07.008]
　Xie Liwan,Chen Guoming,Ju Shaodong.A method for submarine pipeline safety assessment under the incomplete information condition[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2011,30(07):508-512.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2011.07.008]
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信息不完全时的海底管道安全评价方法

《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE] 卷: 30 期数: 2011年07期 页码: 508-512 栏目: 出版日期: 2011-07-25
Title:
A method for submarine pipeline safety assessment under the incomplete information condition
文章编号:
1000-8241(2011)07-0508-05
作者:
谢丽婉; 陈国明; 鞠少栋
中国石油大学海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心，山东东营 257061
Author(s):
Xie Liwan; Chen Guoming; Ju Shaodong
Xie Liwan：Research Centre of Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology，China University of Petroleum（East China），Dongying，Shandong，257061.
关键词:
海底管道; 不完全信息; 灰色关联分析; 直觉模糊集; 证据理论; 安全评价; 专家权重
Keywords:
incomplete information; gray correlation analysis; D-S theory; intuitionistic fuzzy sets
分类号:
TE88
DOI:
10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2011.07.008
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
等.信息不完全时的海底管道安全评价方法.油气储运，2011，30（7）：508 - 512.
摘要：针对风险因素属性权重不确定、专家权重不确定、评价信息不完全构成的混合型海底管道不完全信息安全评价问题，提出一种基于灰色关联分析、层次分析、直觉模糊集和证据理论的安全评价方法（GAFD-S）。应用灰色系统理论确定风险因素的权重，应用层次分析法计算专家主观权重，根据直觉模糊集和信息熵原理确定专家客观权重，利用证据理论集结含有信息缺失的评价值对管道的破坏程度进行排序，确定最需维护的管段。利用该方法对某海底管道4个管段进行安全评价，通过对腐蚀破坏、第三方破坏、自然灾害、人员误操作和设计失误5个指标进行考核，确定了不同管段的受破坏程度，实例证明了GAFD-S方法对于信息不完全海底管道安全评价的实用性。

Abstract:
For the submarine pipeline hybrid safety assessment，with uncertainties of risk attribute weights，experts’weights and information，a safety assessment method is proposed （GAFD-S） based on grey correlation analysis，hierarchical analysis，fuzzy set and evidence theory. Risk factor weights and experts’subjective weights are determined by grey system theory and analytic hierarchy process（AHP）respectively. The experts’objective weights are determined by intuitionistic fuzzy sets and entropy principle. The Dempster-Shafer evidence theory combined with incomplete information assessment is used to sequence damage degree of submarine pipeline，and then find out the most necessary maintenance pipe section. 4 submarine pipeline sections have been assessed with this method（GAFD-S）and the detailed assessment indexes are corrosion risk，the third party damage，natural disasters，person’s maloperation and design defects. The successful assessment results for the foregoing submarine pipeline sections indicates that GAFD-S method is a practical method for submarine pipeline safety assessment under the incomplete information condition.


参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

基金项目：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“南海深水油气开采风险控制技术应用基础研究”，09CX05008A。
作者简介：谢丽婉，在读硕士生，1984年生， 2008年毕业于中国石油大学（华东）信息与计算科学专业，现主要从事海底管道安全保障技术研究。
电话：0546-8391113；Email： xieliwan@126.com? （收稿日期：2011-02-26）

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