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[1]虞维超闪向营王凯鸿李熠辰蓝文门扬宫敬.基于用户满意度的天然气管网供气可靠度确定方法[J].油气储运,2025,44(07):1-12.
　YU Weichao,SHAN Xiangying,WANG Kaihong,et al.A method to determine the target reliability of natural gas pipeline networks based on user satisfaction[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2025,44(07):1-12.

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基于用户满意度的天然气管网供气可靠度确定方法

《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE] 卷: 44 期数: 2025年07期页码: 1-12 栏目: 出版日期: 2025-07-25

Title:: A method to determine the target reliability of natural gas pipeline networks based on user satisfaction

作者:: 虞维超闪向营王凯鸿李熠辰蓝文门扬宫敬

Author(s):: YU Weichao; SHAN Xiangying; WANG Kaihong; LI Yichen; LAN Wen; Men Yang; GONG Jing

关键词:: 天然气管网; 目标可靠度; 用户满意度; 供气可靠度

Keywords:: Natural gas pipeline network; target reliability; user satisfaction; gas supply reliability

分类号:: TE88

文献标志码:: A

摘要:: 【目的】天然气管网作为天然气供应链的关键环节，是天然气生产、贸易、储存及销售的重要纽带，确定天然气管网目标可靠度是提升天然气管网安全、平稳、高效运行水平的前提，但当前天然气管网系统可靠性研究多集中于可靠性指标与供气可靠性计算方法的构建，对于管网目标可靠度设定的研究较少，且未考虑用户用气需求及用气特征。【方法】建立基于用户满意度的天然气管网目标可靠度确定方法：建立天然气管网用户满意度的指标体系，主要由气量满意度、压力满意度、气质满意度、供气策略满意度、应急情况满意度及价格满意度组成，并将供气可靠度定义为仅考虑气量与压力满意度的用户满意度；再构建基于需求保障属性的天然气用户分级方法，将管网天然气用户分为需完全保障、可少量压减、可压减及可中断4类，采用层次分析法确定不同用户类型的用户满意度指标权重，并确立天然气管网供气可靠度与用户满意度的关联函数；基于天然气用户历史需求数据与供气数据，计算用户满意度的一级指标权重，并结合用户目标满意度，最终确定天然气管网目标可靠度。【结果】将新建的天然气管网目标可靠度确定方法应用于某实际天然气管网中，计算得到需完全保障用户、可少量压减用户及可压减用户的目标可靠度分别为0.994 1、0.990 0和0.986 7；与基于风险与经济效益方法对比，新建方法将目标可靠度细化至每个用户，充分考虑用户保障属性，符合天然气管网工程实际及市场化需求，具有较好的可行性。【结论】新建方法可以用于天然气管网供气可靠度的量化评价，既可为管网科学决策的制定提供依据，也可天然气管网系统可靠性理论的落地应用提供技术支撑。

Abstract:: Abstract: As a key link in the natural gas supply chain, the natural gas pipeline network is an important link for natural gas production, trade, storage and sales. Determining the target reliability of natural gas pipeline network is the premise and basis for improving the safe, stable and efficient operation of natural gas pipeline network. However, the current research on the reliability of natural gas pipeline network predominantly focuses on reliability indicators and calculation methods of gas supply reliability, and there are few studies on how to set the target reliability of pipeline network, and there is no consideration of user gas demand and gas consumption characteristics. With the intent of overcoming these deficiencies, this paper proposes a method for determining the target reliability of natural gas pipeline network based on user satisfaction. Firstly, the user satisfaction index system of natural gas pipeline network is established, which is composed of user satisfaction for gas amount, user satisfaction for gas pressure, user satisfaction for gas quality, user satisfaction for gas supply strategy, user satisfaction for emergency, and user satisfaction for gas price. And, the gas supply reliability is defined as user satisfaction considering only user satisfaction for gas amount, user satisfaction for gas pressure. Moreover, a user classification method of natural gas users based on user security attributes is proposed, which divided the natural gas users in the pipeline network into four categories: the users whose demand need to be fully satisfied, the users whose demand can be shed by a small amount, the users whose demand can be shed, the users whose demand can be interrupted. Then, the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weights of each index of user satisfaction of different user types, and the correlation function between the gas supply reliability and user satisfaction is established. Finally, based on the user's historical demand data and gas supply data, the user satisfaction indicators are calculated, and the target reliability of the natural gas pipeline network is determined by combining the value of user satisfaction. Finally, the proposed method for determining the target reliability of the natural gas pipeline network is applied to an actual natural gas pipeline network, and the target reliability of the pipeline network is calculated. The values of the target reliability of the users whose demand need to be fully satisfied, the users whose demand can be shed by a small amount, the users whose demand can be shed are 0.9941, 0.99 and 0.9867, respectively. Compared with the risk-based and economic benefit-based method, the proposed method refines the target reliability to each user, fully considers the user security attributes, meets the actual engineering and market-oriented needs, and verifies the feasibility of the proposed method. The target reliability determination method proposed in this study can be used to quantify the level of gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network and clarify the gas supply reliability gap, so as to provide a basis for the scientific decision-making of the pipeline network and provide support for the application of the reliability theory of the natural gas pipeline network system.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2025-04-07