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[1]任佳维.天然气利用项目关键影响因素及重要性评价[J].油气储运,2025,44(02):1-8.
REN Jiawei.Key Influencing Factors and Importance Evaluation for Natural Gas Utilization Project[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2025,44(02):1-8.
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REN Jiawei.Key Influencing Factors and Importance Evaluation for Natural Gas Utilization Project[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2025,44(02):1-8.
天然气利用项目关键影响因素及重要性评价
《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE]
卷:
44
期数:
2025年02期
页码:
1-8
栏目:
出版日期:
2025-02-25
- Title:
- Key Influencing Factors and Importance Evaluation for Natural Gas Utilization Project
- Keywords:
-
natural gas utilization projects; key influencing factors; analytic hierarchy process (AHP); entropy weight method; comprehensive evaluation
- 分类号:
- TU966;TE832
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 【目的】天然气利用项目开发的影响因素多、周期长，缺乏有效方法判断影响项目的关键因素，导致新项目开发无法突出重点、成功率低。【方法】为了提高天然气项目开发的准确率，构建了一套天然气利用项目关键影响因素评价方法：基于菲尔德法，筛选出12个影响天然气利用项目开发的主要因素；采用层次分析法与熵权法分别计算一级因素、二级因素的权重，再通过线性加权计算综合权重；基于关键因素权重对项目开展综合评价，建立了项目重要性综合评价方法。【结果】在一级因素中，权重排名2～5的影响因素均分布在“市场情况”内，表明一级因素中“市场情况”对天然气利用项目的影响最大；在二级因素中，“投资回收期”的权重最高，表明二级因素中项目的资金回收速度对天然气利用项目影响最大。在参与评价的项目中，应集中资源优先开发重点项目及综合评价权重值大的项目，其中天然气管输项目与气电项目被确定为重点项目，其他项目为一般项目，根据权重可以确定各个项目的优先开发顺序。【结论】新建立的评价方法提高了评价指标权重分配的准确性及可靠性，以其科学性及实用性为项目开发者提供了一套有效的评价方法，有利于促进天然气利用领域项目更加高效地投资与开发。
- Abstract:
- [Purpose] The development of natural gas utilization projects is subject to numerous factors and entails long cycles. The absence of effective methods to pinpoint the key factors affecting these projects has resulted in challenges in prioritizing new project development and a correspondingly low success rate. [Method] Initially, the Field Method was employed to pinpoint 12 primary factors influencing the development of natural gas utilization projects. Subsequently, the weights of these primary and secondary factors were determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method, respectively. The comprehensive weights were then calculated through linear weighting, establishing an evaluation framework for key influencing factors. Utilizing the weights derived from these factors, we developed a comprehensive evaluation method for assessing project importance. [Results] The evaluation of key influencing factors revealed that the top four weighted primary factors were categorized under “market conditions,” indicating that this aspect exerts the most significant influence on natural gas utilization projects and warrants priority attention. Among the secondary factors, “payback period” carried the highest weight, signifying that the pace of capital recovery is the most critical factor in natural gas utilization projects. The comprehensive project evaluation classified natural gas pipeline and gas-to-power projects as key, with other projects deemed general, allowing for the determination of project development priorities based on weight rankings. [Conclusion] The evaluation method for key influencing factors in natural gas utilization projects has significantly enhanced the precision and reliability of weight distribution, successfully identifying the critical factors. Emphasis should be placed on “market conditions” and the influence of the payback period during project development. The comprehensive evaluation method for project importance, with its scientific and practical approach, offers developers a robust tool, poised to streamline the efficiency and focus of project investment and development within the natural gas utilization sector.
更新日期/Last Update:
2024-11-18