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[1]姚广玉,郑洪龙,李大全,等.天然气管道系统目标供气可靠度计算方法[J].油气储运,2024,43(08):1-11.
　Guangyu YAO,Honglong ZHENG,Daquan LI,et al.Calculation method for target gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline system[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2024,43(08):1-11.
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天然气管道系统目标供气可靠度计算方法

《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE] 卷: 43 期数: 2024年08期 页码: 1-11 栏目: 出版日期: 2024-08-25
Title:
Calculation method for target gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline system
作者:
姚广玉; 郑洪龙; 李大全; 魏然然; 孙巧飞; 杨凯　
Author(s):
Guangyu YAO;  Honglong ZHENG;  Daquan LI;  Ranran WEI;  Qiaofei SUN;  Kai YANG
关键词:
天然气管道; 供气能力; 管输任务; 目标可靠度; 社会风险; 个人风险
Keywords:
natural gas pipeline network;  gas supply reliability;  target reliability
分类号:
TE88
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
【目的】天然气管道系统是由众多单元组成的大型、复杂及开放系统，确保安全可靠运行显得尤为重要。随着管道系统可靠性研究的不断深入，系统可靠性指标体系逐渐完善，但尚缺乏有效的系统目标可靠度计算方法，严重制约了天然气管道系统可靠性评价方法的工程实际应用。【方法】提出了一种基于单元可接受风险的天然气管道系统目标供气可靠度计算方法，其包括单元目标可靠度与系统目标供气可靠度两个部分：根据风险可接受准则与风险后果计算方法，构建了基于社会风险与个人风险的管道单元目标可靠度确定模型；考虑天然气管道系统关键单元具有随机失效、气源与用户需求随机波动的特性，构建了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的供气可靠性评价方法，并结合单元目标可靠度计算结果，从而确定天然气管道系统的目标供气可靠度。【结果】将新建的计算方法应用于中国某天然气管道系统，得到该系统目标供气可靠度为0.999 383，将其与基于历史数据统计方法得到的实际供气可靠度0.999 404进行对比，评估得出该天然气管道系统高于目标供气可靠度，能够安全、高效地完成管输任务。【结论】通过实例应用验证了新建计算方法应用于天然气管道系统目标供气可靠度评价的可行性，为后续天然气管道系统可靠性提升与优化研究奠定了技术基础。
Abstract:
As the exploration into the reliability of natural gas pipeline systems delves deeper, the indicators and evaluation methods concerning system reliability are gradually being refined. However, the lack of research on target reliability hinders the practical application of reliability in natural gas pipeline systems within engineering endeavors. This paper proposes a method for determining the target reliability of natural gas pipeline systems based on unit acceptable risk. The method is divided into three parts. Firstly, a model for determining the unit target reliability based on risk is proposed. Secondly, an assessment method for gas supply reliability is established, taking into account unit failures and hydraulic characteristics of the system. Finally, by combining the unit target reliability and employing the proposed gas supply reliability assessment method, the target reliability of the natural gas pipeline system is determined. Using an actual natural gas pipeline system as an example, the target reliability of the system is determined and compared with its actual gas supply reliability, with the aim of providing theoretical support for the scientific management of natural gas pipeline systems.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2024-05-27