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[1]杨瑞,孙猛,赵慧莹,等.基于系统动力学的中国中长期原油需求情景模拟[J].油气储运,2024,43(10):1-18.
YANG Rui,SUN Meng,ZHAO Huiying,et al.Simulation of medium and long term oil demand scenario in China based on system dynamics[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2024,43(10):1-18.
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YANG Rui,SUN Meng,ZHAO Huiying,et al.Simulation of medium and long term oil demand scenario in China based on system dynamics[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2024,43(10):1-18.
基于系统动力学的中国中长期原油需求情景模拟
《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE]
卷:
43
期数:
2024年10期
页码:
1-18
栏目:
出版日期:
2024-10-25
- Title:
- Simulation of medium and long term oil demand scenario in China based on system dynamics
- 分类号:
- F206
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 【目的】随着双碳战略的实施以及新型能源体系的加速构建，中国原油消费即将进入平台期，且未来将逐步下降已经成为行业共识，研究中长期原油需求发展趋势、厘清影响原油需求的驱动因素，对国家原油产业稳健发展、能源政策制定与评估以及新型能源体系建设具有重要意义。【方法】基于系统动力学方法建立中国原油中长期需求情景分析模型，包含经济、人口、原油供给、科技、环境5个子系统，统筹考虑各子系统的发展实际及未来可行性，设置了基准情况、经济高速情景、能源替代情景等6种不同发展情景对2023—2070年中国原油消费需求模拟。【结果】在不同发展情境下，原油需求的达峰时间、峰值以及发展路径略有不同但发展趋势一致，大部分情景在2028-2031年达峰并进入峰值（7.5×108~7.8×108 t）平台期，随后进入下降通道，至2050年前后下降速率逐步放缓，2060年前后进入新的平台期，原油需求量在2×108 t左右；2050年之前原油燃料需求占比大于原料需求，主要应用于交通运输行业，2050年后原油原料需求超过燃料需求，成为主要消费属性，并一直保持该趋势；在诸多影响因素中，经济发展和科技投资是影响原油需求的最主要驱动因素。【结论】提出保障中国原油产业稳健发展的建议：持续推进产业结构转型升级，进一步提原油利用效率、加快低碳/零碳等原油替代产业发展，推动原油消费清洁化，持续加大原油勘探开发投入，加快科技创新支撑研发等，保障中国产业发展、能源转型与供应安全协同稳健发展。
- Abstract:
- 【Purpose】With the implementation of the dual-carbon strategy and the acceleration of the construction of a new energy system, China's crude oil consumption is about to enter a plateau and will gradually decline in the future, which has become the consensus of the industry. Studying the medium - and long-term development trend of crude oil demand and clarifying the driving factors affecting crude oil demand are of great significance for the steady development of the national crude oil industry, energy policy formulation and evaluation, and the construction of a new energy system.【Methods】Based on the system dynamics method, a medium - and long-term oil demand scenario analysis model of China was established, which included five subsystems: economy, population, oil supply, science and technology, and environment. The actual development and future feasibility of each subsystem were considered comprehensively. Six different development scenarios, including baseline scenario, economic high-speed scenario and energy substitution scenario, are set up to simulate China's crude oil consumption demand from 2023 to 2070.【Results】Under different development scenarios, the peak time, peak value and development path of crude oil demand were slightly different, but the development trend was the same. Most scenarios peaked from 2028 to 2031 and entered the plateau period (750-780 million tons), then entered the decline channel, and the decline rate gradually slowed down around 2050. It will enter a new plateau around 2060, with crude oil demand of about 200 million tons. Before 2050, the proportion of crude oil fuel demand is greater than the raw material demand, mainly used in the transportation industry, after 2050, crude oil raw material demand exceeds the fuel demand, becoming the main consumption attribute, and has been maintaining the trend; Among the many influencing factors, economic development and technological investment are the most important driving factors affecting crude oil demand.【Conclusion】The paper puts forward some suggestions for ensuring the steady development of China's crude oil industry. Continue to promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, further improve the utilization efficiency of crude oil, accelerate the development of low-carbon/zero-carbon crude oil alternative industries, promote clean crude oil consumption, continue to increase investment in crude oil exploration and development, accelerate scientific and technological innovation to support research and development, and ensure the coordinated and steady development of China's industrial development, energy transformation and supply security.
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[1]王成军,郭辉.基于博弈论组合赋权的油气场站安全脆弱性SD仿真[J].油气储运,2022,41(01):55.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2022.01.008]
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更新日期/Last Update:
2024-08-10