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[1]武刚,张庶鑫,罗金恒,等.基于TOPSIS的原油储罐风险分级预警[J].油气储运,2024,43(06):1-11.
　WU Gang,ZHANG Shuxin,LUO Jinheng,et al.Graded early warning for crude oil tanks based on TOPSIS[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2024,43(06):1-11.

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基于TOPSIS的原油储罐风险分级预警

《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE] 卷: 43 期数: 2024年06期页码: 1-11 栏目: 出版日期: 2024-06-25

Title:: Graded early warning for crude oil tanks based on TOPSIS

作者:: 武刚; 张庶鑫; 罗金恒; 李丽锋; 徐日; 段庆全; 王熠凡

Author(s):: WU Gang; ZHANG Shuxin; LUO Jinheng; LI Lifeng; XU Ri; DUAN Qingquan; WANG Yifan

关键词:: 原油储罐; 逼近理想解排序方法; TOPSIS; 风险评估; 层次分析法; AHP; 分级预警

Keywords:: crude oil tank; Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS); risk assessment; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); graded early warning

分类号:: TE972.1

文献标志码:: A

摘要:: 【目的】原油储罐目前普遍趋向于大型化、集中化。由于原油的理化性质与储罐材料构件的复杂性，造成了储罐的高风险性，需提高储罐罐区风险管理能力，使日常管理单位掌握储罐状态。应用现有国外标准对应的主流的基于风险的检验（Risk Based Inspection，RBI）技术实施较为复杂，对于现场数据要求偏多，设备因素评价中缺少针对储罐相关附件的影响分析。【方法】提出了一种原油储罐分级预警体系，通过建立基于逼近理想解排序方法（Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution, TOPSIS）的储罐风险分级预警体系模型，实现对储罐风险的综合评估与分级预警：①建立了储罐风险评估指标体系，包括人、设备、环境和管理因素等4个一级指标以及若干二级、三级指标；②应用层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP）对不同层次指标进行赋权，并利用TOPSIS方法对储罐进行相对贴近度计算；③根据相对贴近度结果对储罐进行风险排序和分级预警。【结果】以中国西部某原油储备库区4个原油储罐为研究对象进行风险分级预警，评估结果与国外API 581-2016《基于风险的检验》、EEMUA 159-2017《地上平底储罐：检查维护和修理指南》两种标准的风险评估结果基本一致，可有效预警，且实施便捷、评价指标更为全面。【结论】研究成果能够为罐区巡检、安排储罐大修周期提供合理参考。

Abstract:: [Objective] Given the rise in large-scale and centralized crude oil tanks, along with the physical and chemical properties of crude oil and the intricate nature of tank materials and components, these tanks present substantial risks. Consequently, enhancing the risk management capabilities of tank farms becomes imperative to enable enterprises overseeing routine tank management to acquire a comprehensive grasp of tank conditions. However, the prevailing risk-based inspection (RBI) technology, mandated by current foreign standards, poses challenges in practical execution, primarily due to the extensive field data requirements. Moreover, there is a lack of impact analysis focusing on tank accessories in the assessment of equipment factors. [Methods] This paper presents a graded early warning system for crude oil tanks, incorporating a model based on the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to facilitate a comprehensive assessment and graded early warning of tank risks. (1) The established system of tank risk assessment indicators includes 4 primary indicators of human, equipment, environment, and management factors and several secondary and tertiary indicators. (2) The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is integrated to assign weights to indicators at different levels, and the TOPSIS method is utilized to calculate the relative proximity of tanks. (3) Risks are ranked to enable graded early warning for tanks according to the results of relative proximity. [Results] The graded early warning of risks was carried out for 4 crude oil tanks located at a crude oil depot in western China. The assessment results closely aligned with those derived from API 581-2016 Risk-based Inspection Methodology and EEMUA 159-2017 Above Ground Flat Bottomed Storage Tanks: A Guide to Inspection, Maintenance and Repair. This alignment proved the efficacy of the proposed system in early warning, highlighting its convenience in execution and its coverage of more assessment indicators. [Conclusion] The study results serve as rational references for tank farm patrol inspections and tank overhaul scheduling. (2 Figures, 9 Tables, 20 References)

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更新日期/Last Update: 2024-04-07