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[1]姚广玉,郑洪龙,李大全,等.天然气管道系统目标供气可靠度计算方法[J].油气储运,2024,43(08):896-904.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2024.08.006]
　YAO Guangyu,ZHENG Honglong,LI Daquan,et al.Calculation method for target reliability of natural gas pipeline systems[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2024,43(08):896-904.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2024.08.006]

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天然气管道系统目标供气可靠度计算方法

《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE] 卷: 43 期数: 2024年08期页码: 896-904 栏目: 检测与完整性出版日期: 2024-08-25

Title:: Calculation method for target reliability of natural gas pipeline systems

文章编号:: 1000-8241（2024）08-0896-09

作者:: 姚广玉¹; 郑洪龙²; 李大全³; 魏然然²; 孙巧飞²; 杨凯²; 1.陕西延长石油（集团）管道运输公司;2.国家管网集团科学技术研究总院分公司;3.中国石油尼日尔公司

Author(s):: YAO Guangyu¹; ZHENG Honglong²; LI Daquan³; WEI Ranran²; SUN Qiaofei²; YANG Kai²; 1.Yanchang Petroleum Group Pipeline Company;2.PipeChina Institute of Science and Technology;3.CNPC Niger Company

关键词:: 天然气管道; 供气能力; 管输任务; 目标可靠度; 社会风险; 个人风险

Keywords:: natural gas pipeline; gas supply capacity; pipeline transmission; target reliability; social risk; individual risk

分类号:: F426；TE88

DOI:: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2024.08.006

文献标志码:: A

摘要:: 【目的】天然气管道系统是由众多单元组成的大型、复杂及开放系统，确保安全可靠运行显得尤为重要。随着管道系统可靠性研究的不断深入，系统可靠性指标体系逐渐完善，但尚缺乏有效的系统目标可靠度计算方法，严重制约了天然气管道系统可靠性评价方法的工程实际应用。【方法】提出了一种基于单元可接受风险的天然气管道系统目标供气可靠度计算方法，其包括单元目标可靠度与系统目标供气可靠度两个部分：根据风险可接受准则与风险后果计算方法，构建了基于社会风险与个人风险的管道单元目标可靠度确定模型；考虑天然气管道系统关键单元具有随机失效、气源与用户需求随机波动的特性，构建了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的供气可靠度评价方法，并结合单元目标可靠度计算结果，确定天然气管道系统的目标供气可靠度。【结果】将新建的计算方法应用于中国某天然气管道系统，得到该系统目标供气可靠度为0.999383，将其与基于历史数据统计方法得到的实际供气可靠度0.999404进行对比，评估得出该天然气管道系统可靠度高于目标供气可靠度，能够安全、高效地完成管输任务。【结论】通过实例应用验证了新建计算方法应用于天然气管道系统目标供气可靠度评价的可行性，为后续天然气管道系统可靠性提升与优化研究奠定了技术基础。（图5，表3，参30）

Abstract:: [Objective] The natural gas pipelines are large-scale, intricate, and open systems composed of multiple units, with a specialized focus on ensuring safe and reliable operation. Intensive research on pipeline system reliability has been conducted, gradually improving the system reliability index system and evaluation methodology. Nonetheless, the efficient determination method is still absent, having a significant impact on the practical engineering applications of the established reliability evaluation methods for natural gas pipeline systems. [Methods] This paper introduces an approach to determine the target gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline systems by assessing acceptable risks within their units. The methodology encompasses two key aspects: unit target reliability and system target gas supply reliability. To achieve this, a model for determining the target reliability of pipeline units has been constructed, incorporating both social and individual risks based on risk acceptability criteria and risk consequence calculation methods. Additionally, an evaluation method for gas supply reliability, utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation approach, has been developed. This method takes into account the random failures in crucial units of natural gas pipeline systems and the random fluctuations in gas sources and users’ demands. By integrating these evaluation outcomes with the results of unit target reliability calculations, the target gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline systems can be determined. [Results] The proposed determination approach was applied to a natural gas pipeline system in China, yielding a target gas supply reliability of 0.999 383. By comparing it with the actual reliability of gas supply recorded at 0.999 404 through the statistics method on historical data, the evaluation demonstrated that this natural gas pipeline system surpassed the target gas supply reliability, indicating its capability to ensure safe and efficient pipeline transmission. [Conclusion] The viability of the proposed determination methodology in evaluating the target gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline systems has been verified through an application case. The study findings establish a technical groundwork for future studies focused on reliability improvement and optimization for natural gas pipeline systems. (5 Figures, 3 Tables, 30 References)

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备注/Memo

基金项目：国家管网集团科学研究与技术开发项目“管网系统可靠性深化研究与应用”，WZXGL202108。
作者简介：姚广玉，男，1981年生，高级工程师，2015年硕士毕业于西北大学工商管理专业，现主要从事油气储运工艺与管道完整性管理等方面的研究工作。地址：陕西省延安市宝塔区枣园路延长石油大厦，716099。电话：15991513080。Email：362605408@qq.com
通信作者：郑洪龙，男，1973年生，高级工程师，2005年博士毕业于中国石油大学（北京）油气储运工程专业，现主要从事油气管网系统可靠性研究工作。地址：河北省廊坊市广阳区金光道51号， 065000。电话：13483606595。Email：zhenghl01@pipechina.com.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 2024-08-20