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[1]贺娅娅,甄莹,曹宇光.基于失效概率的老龄油气管道判废方法[J].油气储运,2019,38(03):291-296.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.008]
　HE Yaya,ZHEN Ying,CAO Yuguang.An abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old oil & gas pipelines[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2019,38(03):291-296.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.008]
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基于失效概率的老龄油气管道判废方法

《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE] 卷: 38 期数: 2019年03期 页码: 291-296 栏目: 完整性与可靠性 出版日期: 2019-03-25
Title:
An abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old oil & gas pipelines
文章编号:
1000-8241（2019）03-0291-06
作者:
贺娅娅1; 甄莹1; 曹宇光1
1.中国石油大学（华东）储运与建筑工程学院；2.山东省油气储运安全省级重点实验室
Author(s):
HE Yaya1;  ZHEN Ying1;  CAO Yuguang1; 2
1.College of Pipeline and Civil Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China); 2.Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Safety
关键词:
油气管道; 事故频率; 失效概率; 管道判废
Keywords:
oil & gas pipelines;  accident frequency;  failure probability;  pipeline abandonment judgment
分类号:
TE88
DOI:
10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2019.03.008
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
服役年限较长的老龄油气管道事故频繁，结构安全性低，运维成本高，需要做废弃处理。提出 了一种基于失效概率的老龄管道判废方法：广泛调研国内外油气管道事故数据，参考事故频率数据， 推荐了管道基本失效概率，以目标管道或同期建设、运营环境相似的管道事故历史数据计算的失效 风险概率作为判废评估指标，通过无量纲化的风险系数给出老龄管道废弃指导意见。该方法可实现 油气管道定量判废评估，有效解决老龄管道的判废问题。（图1，表3，参25）
Abstract:
Old oil & gas pipelines which have been in service for a longer time tend to suffer accidents frequently and their structural safety is low with high operating costs, so they shall be treated as the abandonment.In this paper, an abandonment judgment method based on failure probability for old pipelines was proposed as follows.Firstly, after the data of oil & gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad are extensively investigated, referring to the data of accident frequency, the basic pipeline failure probability is recommended.Then, the failure probability is calculated based on the historical accident data of the target pipeline or the pipeline with the contemporaneous construction and similar operation environment, and it is used as the evaluation index of abandonment judgment.Finally, the guidance for abandonment of old pipeline is provided by using the dimensionless risk coefficient.By virtue of this method, the quantitative abandonment judgment and evaluation of oil & gas pipeline can realize and the problem related with the abandonment judgment of old pipelines can be solved effectively.(1 Figure, 3 Tables, 25 References)

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备注/Memo

基金项目：国家重点研发计划课题“临海油气管道完整性管理技术研究及示范应用”，2016YFC0802306；国家自然科学基金资助项目“管道检测器卡堵关键力学问题研究”，11472309；机械结构强度与振动国家重点实验室开放课题“基于 CTOD-CTOA X80管道断裂韧性研究”，SV2017-KF-02。 作者简介：贺娅娅，女，1992年生，助理工程师， 2018年硕士毕业于中国石油大学（华东）力学专业，现主要从事新能源汽车疲劳耐久方面的研究工作。地址：重庆市渝北区翠云街道南山花园 A区 4栋 2-1，401120。电话：18696666412。Email：591677547@qq.com 通信作者：曹宇光，男，1979年生，教授，博士生导师， 2006年博士毕业于日本富山县立大学机械系统工程专业，现主要从事海洋工程技术、结构安全评估、断裂失效与断口分析等方向的研究工作。地址：山东省青岛市经济技术开发区长江西路 66号，266580。电话： 0532?86981774。Email：caoyuguang@gmail.com

更新日期/Last Update: 2019-03-20