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为提高油气管道维抢修作业人员可靠性,减少作业人为失误事故,需要对其可靠性进行准确评价。以西北石油管道维抢修分公司维抢修作业人员为评价对象,构建3 层可靠性评价指标体系,在此基础上应用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)确立各指标权重,并采用灰色-模糊理论进行维抢修作业人员可靠性综合评价。由等级贴近度法处理评价结果向量,得到可靠性评价等级为良好,其中组织管理因素对维抢修作业人员可靠性影响最大,人员自身因素次之。该评价体系为进一步提高人员可靠性指明了方向和途径,对西北石油管道维抢修公司完善应急人员管理有重要指导作用,也为其他公司维抢修人员的可靠性评价提供了借鉴。
In order to improve the reliability of emergency repair personnel and reduce accidents induced by human error in operation, their reliability should be assessed accurately. In this paper, a reliability analysis is made on the emergency repair personnel of Northwest Petroleum Pipeline Maintenance Repair Branch Company, and then a three-level reliability assessment system is established. On this basis, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to define the weight of each index, and the grey-fuzzy theory is adopted to evaluate the reliability of the emergency repair personnel. Then, the evaluation results are treated with the level-closeness degree method, revealing good reliability. The reliability of emergency repair personnel is most influenced by the organizational management, followed by the personal factor. The assessment system indicates the orientation and channels to enhance the reliability, thereby providing instructions for Northwest Petroleum Pipeline Maintenance Repair Branch Company to improve its management of emergency repair personnel, and also providing reference for other companies in assessing the reliability of their emergency repair personnel.
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收稿日期:2015-11-27;改回日期:2015-12-28。
基金项目:陕西省重大科技创新项目“基于物联网的智慧油田应用系统”,2014ZKC(一)03-02。
作者简介:张乃禄,男,教授,1961年生,2003年硕士毕业于西安交通大学工商管理专业,现主要从事油气田安全管理与评价、数字化油田技术的研究工作。地址:陕西省西安市电子二路号18号,710065。电话:029-88382650(0),Email:zhnailu@263.net