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天然气管网是连接资源与市场的纽带,确保天然气管网安全运行与平稳供气是油气储运界的重要课题。当前,对天然气管网运行与供气可靠性的研究尚处于起步阶段,经典可靠性理论不能满足现实需要。论述了经典可靠性理论在天然气管网单元可靠性评价的适用性与在管网系统运行及其供气可靠性评价方面的局限,指出了天然气管网可靠性研究的关键问题,分析了国内外在该领域的研究现状和发展方向,总结了相近领域可供借鉴的研究成果。目前,评价天然气管网可靠性需要解决的主要问题包括:构造全方位、多维度的评价指标体系;整合现有理论与方法,将工程方法与经典理论相统一,建立完善的单元与系统可靠性评价方法;针对天然气管网的运行特点和用户需求构造基于可靠性的优化模型等。
Gas pipeline network is the bond between resources and markets, and its safety and stability are always hotspots in the oil & gas transportation and storage sector. Currently, researches on reliability assessment for operation and gas supply of gas pipeline network are still in a primary stage, whereas traditional theories on reliability cannot be used directly for this purpose. This paper reviewed the applicability and limitation of traditional theories in the reliability assessment of the units, operation and gas supply of the gas pipeline network, and indicated key issues in researches thereof. In addition, this paper illustrated the progress and prospects of the researches on reliability assessment for gas pipeline network, and summarized the results as reference for similar fields. There are several major issues to be considered in such assessment, including the development of a comprehensive and multi-dimensional system of indices for reliability assessments, the development of reliability assessment methods for specific units and systems through combination of traditional reliability theories and methods with the engineering practices of gas pipeline network, and the development of optimization model based on reliability for the operation features and user demands of gas pipeline networks.
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收稿日期:2015-09-22;改回日期:2015-12-02。
作者简介:苏怀,男,在读博士生,1990年生,2013年毕业于中国石油大学(北京)油气储运工程专业,现主要从事天然气管网供气可靠性评价及其优化的研究工作。地址:北京市昌平区府学路18号,102249。电话:15210878167,Email:suhuai1990@163.com