PDF下载

[1]郭兵,帅健,胡元甲,等.原油储罐底板腐蚀深度的概率分布[J].油气储运,2014,33(11):1229-1234.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.11.017]
　GUO Bing,SHUAI Jian,HU Yuanjia,et al.Probability distribution of corrosion depth at the bottom plate of crude oil tank[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(11):1229-1234.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.11.017]

点击复制

原油储罐底板腐蚀深度的概率分布

《油气储运》[ISSN:1000-8241/CN:13-1093/TE] 卷: 33 期数: 2014年第11期页码: 1229-1234 栏目: 出版日期: 2014-11-25

Title:: Probability distribution of corrosion depth at the bottom plate of crude oil tank

作者:: 郭兵¹; 帅健¹; 胡元甲²; 帅义¹; 石磊¹; 1. 中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院, 北京 102249;
2. 中国石油天然气勘探开发公司, 北京 100034

Author(s):: GUO Bing¹; SHUAI Jian¹; HU Yuanjia²; SHUAI Yi¹; SHI Lei¹; 1. College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing, 102249;
2. China National Oil & Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing, 100034

关键词:: 原油储罐; 极值理论; 广义极值分布; 矩估计; 概率权值法

Keywords:: crude oil tank; extreme value theory; generalized extreme value distribution; moment estimation; probability weighting method

分类号:: TE972

DOI:: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.11.017

摘要:: 底板腐蚀是原油储罐失效的主要原因.为准确预测在役储罐底板的极限腐蚀深度和储罐的剩余寿命,基于极值统计理论的三参数极值II型分布和三参数极值III型分布,建立了广义极值分布模型(GEV),应用概率权值法估计GEV模型参数,应用矩估计法估计极值I型分布和两参数极值III型分布的参数.对3组储罐底板腐蚀深度的实测数据进行统计分析,并通过拟合优度检验的K-S检验和作图法,对比不同分布形式对腐蚀深度预测的准确性.结果表明:广义极值分布模型可以很好地描述储罐底板腐蚀深度数据的分布情况,但是具体服从极值II型分布还是三参数极值III型分布,还需要根据每个储罐底板腐蚀深度数据来确定,通过K-S检验法和作图法验证得出GEV模型的拟合程度最好.

Abstract:: Bottom plate corrosion is the main cause for failure of crude oil tanks. To accurately predict the limit corrosion depth of the in-service tank bottom plate and the residual life of the tank, according to Type II and Type III distribution of extreme value of three parameters based on the extreme statistical theory, this paper provides the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model, and uses the probability weighting method to estimate GEV model parameters and the moment estimation method to estimate the parameters for Type I extreme value distribution and Type III extreme value distribution of two parameters. The measured data of bottom plate corrosion depth for three groups of tanks are statistically analyzed, and through the test of goodness of fit of the K-S detection and mapping method, the accuracy of different distribution patterns on the corrosion depth prediction are compared. Results show that the generalized extreme value distribution model can well describe the distribution of tank bottom corrosion depth data, but whether it is subject to Type II extreme value distribution or Type III extreme value distribution of three parameters must be determined according to corrosion depth of each tank bottom plate. The GEV model shows the best fitting performance as verified by K-S detection and mapping method.

参考文献/References:

[1]赵雪娥，蒋军成，王若菌．原油储罐腐蚀机理及致因事故树分析[J]．腐蚀科学与防护技术， 2006， 18 （3）： 213-216．

　ZHAO X E，JIANG J C，WANG R J. Corosion failure analysis of oil tanks by means of fault tree analysis[J]．Corrosion Science and Protection Techonology， 2006， 18 （3）：213-216．

[2]JAE S K, DAE H A, SANG Y L,et al. A failure analysis of fillet joint cracking in an oil storage tank[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industry,2009,22(6):845-849.

[3]孙华，王成明．原油储罐的腐蚀及防护[J]．化工装备技术， 2001，22 （5）： 48-52．

　SUN H，WANG C M. Corrosion and protection of crude oil steel tank[J]．Chemical Equipment Technology， 2001， 22 （5）：48-52．

[4]瓮永基，李相怡．腐蚀预测和计量学基础[M]．北京：石油工业出版社， 2011．

　WENG Y J，LI X Y. Corrosion Prediction and Metrology[M]. Beijing： Petroleum Industry Press， 2011.

[5]杨廷鸿，何超，吴松林，等．钢质油罐底板腐蚀概率估计[J]．后勤工程学院学报， 2013， 29 （4）： 25-30．

　YANG T H，HE C，WU S L，et al. Estimation of corrosion probability for steel tank floor-plates[J]. Journal of Logistical Engineering University， 2013， 29 （4）：25-30．

[6]陈思维，全光远，裴小非，等．储油罐底板腐蚀的概率统计评估研究[J]．广州化工， 2012， 40 （18）： 110-112．

　CHEN S W，QUAN G Y，PEI X F，et al. Study on corrosion assessment of oil tank floor based on statistic method[J]. GuangZhou Chemical Industry and Technology， 2012， 40 （18）：110-112．

[7]AZIZ P M. Application of the statistical theory of extreme values to the analysis of maximum pit depth data for aluminum[J]. Corrosion Science,1956,13:813-850.

[8]刘东宁．用概率极值统计法预测分馏塔最大点蚀深度及寿命[J]．腐蚀与防护， 1990， 11 （5）： 252-256．

　LIU D N. Prediction on the maximum pitting depth and lifetime of fractionating tower using probability extremum statistics method[J]. Corrosion and Protection， 1990， 11 （5）：252-256．

[9]VALOR A,CALEYO D,CALEYO F,et al. Discussion: statistical characterization of pitting corrosion - part 1 data analysis and part 2 probabilistic modeling for maximum pit depth[J]. Corrosion,2007,63(2):107-113.

[10]帅健，许学瑞，韩克江．原油储罐检修周期[J]．石油学报， 2012，33 （1）： 157-163．

　SHUAI J，XU X R，HAN K J. Overhaul interval of crude oil tanks[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica， 2012，33 （1）：157-163．

[11]MELCHERS R E. Extreme value statistics and long-term marine pitting corrosion of steel[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2008,23(4):482-488.

[12]刘雪云，张宁宁，赵光连，等．储油罐底腐蚀深度统计的极值理论应用[J]．哈尔滨工业大学学报， 2013， 45 （3）： 56-60．

　LIU X Y，ZHANG N N，ZHAO G L，et al. Application of extreme value theory in the corrosion depthstatistics of storage tank bottom[J]. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology， 2013， 45 （3）：56-60．

[13]颜力，廖柯熹，蒙东英，等．管道最大腐蚀坑深的极值统计方法研究[J]．石油工程建设， 2007， 33 （3）： 1-4．

　YAN L，LIAO K X，MENG D Y，et al. Study on extremum statistical method of maximum corroded pit depth of pipeline[J]. Petroleum Project Construction， 2007， 33 （3）：1-4．

[14]曹楚南．论小孔腐蚀深度的统计规律[J]．化工机械， 1977 （4）： 40-48．

　CAO C N. Disscussion on statistical law of corrosion depth of small holes[J]. Chemical Engineering and Machinery， 1977 （4）：40-48．

[15]段忠东，周道成．极值概率分布参数估计方法的比较研究[J]．哈尔滨工业大学学报， 2004， 36 （12）： 1605-1609．

　DUAN Z D，ZHOU D C. A comparative study on parameter estimate method for extremal value distribution[J]. Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology， 2004， 36 （12）：1605-1609．

相似文献/References:

[1]宋宜四,高万夫,李发根.极值理论应用于埋地管道土壤腐蚀坑深研究[J].油气储运,2009,28(1):33.[doi:DOI:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2009.01.010]
　SONG Yisi,GAO Wanfu.Study on the Application of Extremum Statistical Method to Corrosion Pit Depth of Buried Pipeline[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2009,28(11):33.[doi:DOI:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2009.01.010]
[2]孙成德,淦邦,王庆.原油储罐机械清洗作业效率优化方案[J].油气储运,2014,33(7):791.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.07.021]
　SUN Chengde,GAN Bang,WANG Qing.Optimization of mechanical cleaning efficiency of crude oil tank[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(11):791.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.07.021]
[3]武刚,徐帅,张哲,等.谐波沉降作用下大型原油储罐变形响应分析[J].油气储运,2021,40(08):860.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.08.004]
　WU Gang,XU Shuai,ZHANG Zhe,et al.Analysis on deformation response of large crude oil storage tanks under harmonic settlement[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2021,40(11):860.[doi:10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2021.08.004]

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2014-2-24;改回日期:2014-8-29。
作者简介:郭兵,在读硕士生,1986年生,2011年毕业于河北工业大学安全工程专业,现主要从事储罐与管道的安全评价与完整性管理研究.Tel: 18810510021, Email: guobing2565@126.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01