海底油气管道全寿命周期风险评估模型

1. 中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心;2. 青岛市即墨区应急管理局

海底油气管道;全寿命周期;风险识别;风险评估模型

Risk assessment model for full life cycle of submarine oil and gas pipeline
GENG Kaiyue1,2, CHEN Guoming1, LI Xinhong1, ZHU Hongwei1, LIU Changxin1

1. Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum (East China);2. Qingdao Jimo District Emergency Management Bureau

submarine oil and gas pipeline, full life cycle, risk identification, risk assessment model

DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2020.04.017

备注

海底油气管道作为海上油气田生产系统的重要组成部分,其设计、施工、运行及弃置等各阶段均存在诸多风险。为了降低海底管道全寿命周期内各类风险,减少海底油气管道事故,围绕海底油气管道全寿命周期管理过程开展风险评估,建立了海底油气管道全寿命周期风险评估体系;根据海底油气管道的时间属性,将海底油气管道全寿命周期划分为6 个寿命阶段;依据空间属性,采用递进细分原则,对海底油气管道进行分段,梳理不同阶段影响管道安全的制约因素,并对风险制约因素进行权重赋值,建立了管道失效可能性评分模型与失效后果评估模型,得出了风险值;根据风险值确定管道风险等级,再依据风险等级对危险管段实施管控,有效提升了管道全寿命周期内的风险控制水平,为海底油气管道全寿命风险管理提供了参考。(图2表4,参[22]

Risks may exist in the design, construction, operation and disposal of the submarine oil and gas pipeline, which is an integral part of the offshore oil and gas field production system. To minimize all kinds of risks in the full life cycle of submarine pipeline and reduce accidents of submarine oil and gas pipeline, risk assessment was carried out based on the full life cycle management process of submarine oil and gas pipeline, and the full life cycle risk assessment system for submarine oil and gas pipelines was established. The full life cycle of submarine oil and gas pipeline was divided into 6 stages according to the time attribute of submarine oil and gas pipeline, and similarly, the pipeline was segmented by the spatial attribute based on the principle of progressive subdivision. By sorting out the constraints affecting the pipeline safety in different stages, assigning weights to the constraints, and establishing the pipeline failure possibility scoring model and failure consequence assessment model, the risk value was obtained. The risk level of the pipeline shall be determined by the risk value and will be the basis for control of hazardous pipeline sections, which will effectively improve the risk control level in the full life cycle of the pipeline and provide reference for the full life risk management of the submarine oil and gas pipeline. (2 Figures, 4 Tables, 22 References)

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