天然气管道相互依赖性风险分析方法

中国石油西气东输管道公司

天然气管道;风险分析;相互依赖性;定量分析

An interdependence-based risk analysis method for natural gas pipelines
ZHANG Zongjie, SUN Qijing, XIONG Changzheng, XIANG Zhongchao, HUI Haijun

PetroChina West-East Gas Pipeline Company

natural gas pipelines, risk analysis, interdependence, quantitative analysis

备注

为了分析天然气管网与其他基础设施在空间、功能上的复杂相互作用关系,以及其中隐含的安全风险,研究引入了相互依赖性的概念,并结合天然气管网风险管理的实际需求,在地理位置、功能及后果三个方面对其内涵进行了分析。提出一种基于相互依赖性的风险分析方法,其半定量模块为事故发生的概率和后果划分了等级,而定量模块可以估计事故风险可能性。通过算例演示了该方法的计算过程,并根据研究结果提出了降低天然气管道与其他基础设施的相互依赖性及其风险的建议。(图3表1,参[20]

In order to analyze the complex interaction between gas pipelines and other infrastructures in space and function, as well as the hidden security risks, the concept of interdependence was introduced, and its connotation was analyzed in three aspects, i.e., geographic location, function and consequence combined with the actual demand of risk management of gas pipelines. A risk analysis method based on interdependence was proposed. The semi-quantitative module classifies the probability and consequence of accidents, and the quantitative module can estimate the probability of accidents. The calculation process of this method was illustrated by an example. Based on the research results, suggestions for reducing the interdependence and risk between gas pipelines and other infrastructures were put forward. (3 Figures, 1 Table, 20 References)