俄罗斯与中亚国家的油气过境运输现状及启示

1. 中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院;2. 中国石油集团经济技术研究院;3. 俄罗斯古勃金国立石油天然气大学

中亚;俄罗斯;油气管道;过境;转口;出口多元化

Status and enlightenment of oil and gas transit transportation between Russia and countries in Central Asia
LIANG Meng1,2, PENG Yingying2, ZHANG Yanyun2, SUN Li2, REN Zhongyuan2, ZHANG Qi1, YANG Ying3

1.School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum (Beijing);2. CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute3. Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas

Central Asia, Russia, oil and gas pipelines, transit, extrepot, export diversification

备注

中亚俄罗斯地区是世界第二大油气聚集区,大规模油气开采得益于强有力的油气输送设施,区域间各国的合作体现在彼此过境油气输送。中亚油气出口对俄罗斯存在严重依赖,为保障能源出口安全,中亚各国纷纷出台出口多元化政策,但收效甚微:目前,哈萨克斯坦油气出口仍高度受俄罗斯控制,中亚其他国家要么无法摆脱俄罗斯,要么多元化进程受阻。主要原因在于该地区复杂的地缘局势,美、俄、欧多重势力与利益冲突,多元化之路并非坦途,背后实为大国力量的博弈与再平衡,深受政治、经济、外交、能源等多重因素影响。未来中亚能源出口多元化必将促使俄罗斯过境地位的下降,但鉴于背靠背的地缘关系,俄罗斯的主导作用仍难以取代,双方将在合作与竞争中前行,促进与抑制并存。中国作为油气进口大国,输送通道直接决定了油气的供应安全,为降低因突发事件带来的运输风险,减少对单个通道的过度依赖,有必要加强油气进口路径的多元化,着力打造与资源国油气管道的互联互通,切实保障自身能源安全。(图6表1,参[23]

The area of Central Asia and Russia is the second largest oil and gas accumulation area in the world. Large-scale oil and gas production benefits from powerful oil and gas transportation facilities. The cooperation between interregional countries is embodied as the oil and gas transit transportation between them. It is obvious that the oil and gas export of Central Asia is seriously dependent on Russia. And in order to ensure the safety of energy export, all countries in the Central Asia promulgate export diversification policies successively, but the effect is very little. At present, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas export is highly under the control of Russia, and the other countries in the Central Asia fail in getting rid of the control of Russia or their diversification processes are hindered. The main reason for these situations is the complex geopolitical situations in this area. Due to the existence of American, Russian and European multiple forces and the conflicts of interest, the road to diversification is not smooth. And in fact, it is the game and rebalance between powers, so it is affected by multiple factors, e.g. politics, economics, foreign affair and energy. In the future, the energy export diversification of Central Asia will surely promote the decline of Russian transit position. In view of the back-to-back geopolitical relationships, however, the dominance of Russia can be hardly replaced. Therefore, both sides will advance based on cooperation and competition, with the coexistence of promotion and inhibition. As one oil and gas import power, China’s oil and gas supply safety is directly controlled by the transportation channels, so in order to reduce the transportation risks caused by emergencies and decrease the over-reliance on single channel, it is necessary to strengthen the diversification of oil and gas import channels, focus on connecting with the oil and gas pipelines of resource countries and practically ensure China’s energy safety. (6 Figures, 1 Table, 23 References)